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Assimilation methods of mathematical model of harmful substances propagation with real obseravions for emergency management sup.

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The project deals with development of the advanced techniques of assimilation of model results with observations in terrain for purposes of reliability improvement in estimation of final real state. The main objective of the applicant´s team is to utilise knowledge and experience existing in the department of adaptive systems in ÚTIA in the field of Bayesian methods and to derive their proper modifications for analysis of admixtures propagation into living environment. In succession on current experience with description of random process of straight-line spreading, the stochastic version of segmented propagation scheme have to be accomplished in order to account for both hourly changes of meteorological conditions and inherent random character of the input parameter group. It will provide a proper tool for (i) ucertainty analysis and sensitivity studies permiting in their implication to generate the probabilistic answers on assessment questions and (ii) estimation of system state and its error covariance structure, which together with determination of the observation error covariance matrix will form profound inevitable basis for application of advanced statistical techniques of the objective analysis used within the frame of assimilation cycle. The results of theoretical research will be embodied into user-friendly program package facilitating the emergency decision-making.
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2012-10-16 13:10